Budgeting 201: An Immediate Debt Crisis

USA vs. Cyprus: Gross Government Debt to GDP

– By: Larry Walker, II –

According to Speaker of the House John Boehner, “We do not have an immediate debt crisis.” No, then what would you call it? Seems to me it was immediate in 1995, and again in 2008, so what is it now? Are we just screwed? And according to Barack Obama, “We don’t have an immediate crisis in terms of debt. In fact, for the next 10 years, it’s gonna be in a sustainable place.” Yeah, what place is that, Wonderland? Have you people lost your minds?

The chart above is from data published by the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012. Based on what’s happening in Cyprus, for some reason I don’t believe either of them. We had an immediate debt crisis in 1995 when our debt-to-GDP ratio reached 71%, insomuch that the government was shut down. And another in 2008 when it reached 76%, just before all hell broke loose. And now suddenly, as gross U.S. debt has surged beyond 100% of GDP, the problem is no longer immediate. If the debt isn’t an immediate problem, when will it become one? Let me answer that for you.

The debt will become an immediate crisis when our economy inevitably dips into recession, a phenomenon which has occurred historically about once every 5 years since World War II. In fact, recession is exactly what’s happening in Cyprus right now. But surely recession will never reoccur in the U.S., because government fixed that problem once and for all, right? I mean it cost us around $6.7 trillion over the last four years, but the problem is solved, right? With GDP surging at a robust growth rate of 0.4% (revised) in the 4th Quarter of 2012, how can our government possibly be wrong? Oh give me a break!

I believe part of what exacerbated the crisis of 2008 was an excessive amount of government debt. So what do you think is going to happen with our debt hovering above 100% of GDP, as the next crisis hits? Is the U.S. government prepared for another recession? Is there anything left in the tank? It sure doesn’t look like it. Well, we’re not going to sit around and let the government continue to tax us to death, and we’re definitely not going for the unlawful seizure of our money and property, so I suggest you government guys get your act together and get serious about your spending problem, and that means now.

Instead of loosening standards and letting everyone who wants to – go on disability, welfare and food stamps; granting any illegal alien who desires – a free pass; and subsidizing any and everyone’s health insurance bill, while the other half of us and our grandchildren get stuck with the bill, now is the time to tighten standards and cut the slack. The sequester is right! Reducing the size of government is right!

Government needs to learn how to say, “No”. It should be, ‘Sorry, you’re going to have to go back to work, and you’re going to have to go back to your own country, and you’re going to have to chip in on taxes, because we can’t have 50% of the populace taking care of everyone else.’ If our government doesn’t learn how to say no, it’s going to destroy this nation and along with it our freedom. Yes, the debt is an immediate crisis, and it is an imminent threat to the survival of the Republic.

The chart above is from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. I’ll ask again. Does this look like it might be an immediate crisis, or just a tiny little problem years and years from now? It sure looks immediate to me, but maybe I’m just a bit more focused on surviving the unknowns, than sitting around fooling myself into thinking everything is going to be rosy ten years from now, if I just fold my hands, play a little more golf, and trust that someone else will handle it for me. Yeah, just like Cyprus, right? It’s time to stop playing politics and face reality.

References:

My Data – USA vs. Cyprus: Debt to GDP

IMF: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012

Related:

Budgeting 101: A Balanced Approach

What Does Sequestration Mean To You?

From AAA to AA- in Four Years

Uncorrelated: GDP and National Debt

#Debt

Budgeting 101: A Balanced Approach

I do believe that at some point government has borrowed enough. Although tax revenue is directly tied to economic growth, government spending is not.

– By: Larry Walker, II –

How does one balance a budget? Let me count the ways. Spend less than you take in annually, and you’ll live within your means. But how can governments comply? Why that’s easy. Simply calculate the rate of revenue growth in the previous year, then adjust the prior year’s spending level by this multiple for the current year. If a deficit ensues, trim spending back into balance. If a surplus results, pass it back to taxpayers in the form of tax rate reductions. Most of us would call this a balanced approach.

Of course proponents of big-government will retort, “It doesn’t work like that. We must spend around 50% or more than we take in, to stimulate revenue; so that we can spend around 50% more than we take in, to stimulate even more revenue; so that we can spend around 50% more than we take in, stimulating ever more revenue, ad infinitum…” Yet, it’s rather obvious that the modern day extreme left-wing’s touted correlation between government borrowing and economic growth is nonexistent, as we proved in – Uncorrelated: GDP and National Debt.

It might be helpful for far left-wingers to remember the words of the Original Democrat, Andrew Jackson, who once said, “I am one of those who do not believe that a national debt is a national blessing, but rather a curse to a republic; inasmuch as it is calculated to raise around the administration a moneyed aristocracy dangerous to the liberties of the country.” For more, see my post entitled, From AAA to AA- in Four Years.

You see, “For Jackson politics was very personal,” says H.W. Brands, an Andrew Jackson biographer at the University of Texas. “He hated not just the federal debt. He hated debt at all.” Before he was president, Jackson was a land speculator in Tennessee. He learned to hate debt when a land deal went bad and left him with massive debt and some worthless paper notes. Thus, unlike POTUS #44, Jackson brought practical business experience to the White House.

When he ran for president, Jackson knew his enemy: banks and the national debt. He called it “the national curse”. In Jackson’s mind, debt was “a moral failing”, says Brands. “The idea you could somehow acquire stuff through debt almost seemed like black magic.” But now days, if you listen closely to the Democratic Party, its enemy is no longer the national debt, but rather the average, anti-debt, fiscally responsible, Tea Party patriot.

The Balanced Approach

What would the federal government’s surpluses and deficits look like had it followed a balanced approach since 1929? Per the chart below, having begun with a surplus of $1 billion in 1929, the federal government would have realized a surplus of $835 billion in the 3rd quarter of 2012, compared to an actual deficit of around $1.1 trillion. Of course, all surpluses along the way could have been returned to taxpayers through periodic tax rate reductions, making income tax compliance at least somewhat worthy of the effort.

Under the balanced approach, when all spending is totaled from 1929 through 2012, the federal government would have spent a total of $39.4 trillion, versus the $66.9 trillion actually spent, for savings of $27.5 trillion. That means instead of a national debt fast approaching $17 trillion, we could be sitting on a national surplus of around $10.5 trillion.

The Unbalanced Approach

In contrast, what has the federal government’s unbalanced approach yielded? Per the second chart (below), having begun with a surplus of $1 billion in 1929, the federal government wound up running a budget deficit of approximately $1.1 trillion in the 3rd quarter of 2012. As you can see, the main imbalance has occurred since the year 2008, which is when the federal government adopted its current philosophy, where expenditures are completely decoupled from revenue growth – as if spending is suddenly a function of an imaginary 22nd Century economic boom. Meanwhile, approximately $6.7 trillion has been added to the debt since 2008, and the economy grew at a paltry annual rate of 0.4% (revised) in the 4th Quarter of 2012.

Conclusion

Although federal tax revenue is a function of economic growth, government spending is not. In other words, as the economy grows, tax revenue increases; and as it shrinks, tax revenue declines. Anyone who doesn’t understand this should return to the 6th grade for a refresher in basic math. On the other hand, government spending is a function of revenue. That is to say, as tax revenue rises and falls, so follows the amount available for government expenditures. Surpluses and deficits are directly linked to the level of government spending. When government spends less than it takes in, there is a surplus; when it spends more than it takes in, a deficit. It’s really that simple.

If the federal government is to ever regain control over spending, it must start with the rate of revenue increase (or decrease) in the previous year, since this is the only reasonable way of projecting the amount available for the current year, and then adjust its current year spending level accordingly (up or down). As soon as a deficit appears, the role of government is to trim spending back into balance. When a surplus results, government’s role is to pass the savings back to taxpayers, in the form of tax rate reductions. This we call, “the balanced approach” – and there is none other. Don’t patronize me. There is really only one question, Will the Democratic Party ever recover its bygone common sense?

Reference:

My Worksheet on Google Drive

BEA: Table 3.2. Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures

Related:

From AAA to AA- in Four Years

Uncorrelated: GDP and National Debt

#Debt

GAO: “No Opinion” on U.S. Financial Audit

Comments on 2012 Financial Statements of the U.S. Government

– By: Larry Walker II –

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is required to audit financial statements for the U.S. government each year. What the GAO found in its Fiscal Year 2012 Audit published on January 17, 2013 is clearly unacceptable. If you take a few moments to read the report, what you’ll discover is that not only has the U.S. government been operating without a budget for the last three years, but even worse its books and records are so out of order that financial auditors were unable to render an opinion. You can bet that all the major credit rating agencies are paying attention and will render an opinion when judgment day arrives, and that day should be right around the corner. Following are some highlights from the latest report (in italics) along with a brief commentary.

Disclaimer of Opinion

“Because of the federal government’s inability to demonstrate the reliability of significant portions of the U.S. government’s accompanying accrual-based consolidated financial statements for fiscal years 2012 and 2011, principally resulting from limitations related to certain material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting and other limitations on the scope of our work, we are unable to, and we do not, express an opinion on such accrual-based consolidated financial statements. As a result of these limitations, readers are cautioned that amounts reported in the accrual-based consolidated financial statements and related notes may not be reliable.”

Based on the auditor’s inability to express an opinion on the federal government’s financial statements, it is my opinion that any request to raise the debt ceiling should be summarily denied. Were the federal government a private entity, its creditors would be cashing out now and asking questions later. But since the federal government has a seeming unlimited ability to borrow without ever reducing its debt principal, perhaps my personal perceptions are overly rational. Then again, any decision based upon uncertainty or unreliable information can later come back to bite. If the federal government’s financial statements are so unreliable that auditors are unable to express an opinion, my gut instinct is to limit exposure, cut losses and move on.

“While significant progress has been made in improving federal financial management since the federal government began preparing consolidated financial statements 16 years ago, three major impediments continued to prevent GAO from rendering an opinion on the federal government’s accrual-based consolidated financial statements over this period: (1) serious financial management problems at DOD that have prevented its financial statements from being auditable, (2) the federal government’s inability to adequately account for and reconcile intragovernmental activity and balances between federal agencies, and (3) the federal government’s ineffective process for preparing the consolidated financial statements.”

The Department of Defense (DOD) is no longer the largest drag on the federal budget; the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) came in at number one last year, while the Social Security Administration (SSA) clocked in at number two, responsible for 23% and 22% of net federal costs, respectively. DOD now represents the 3rd largest item in the federal budget, consuming 21% of the government’s $3.8 trillion in net costs for FY 2012, yet its financial statements are currently not auditable. That means we really have no idea what DOD is buying, what it already owns, or the true nature of its future liabilities.

Further, according to GAO, most of the increase in DOD’s cost during FY 2012 was attributed to its Military Retirement Fund and other benefits programs. Since at the same time, the bulk of HHS and SSA costs come from major social insurance and postemployment benefits programs administered by those agencies (e.g., Medicare for HHS, and Social Security for SSA), that means better than 50% of federal spending (more than $1.9 Trillion) is directed towards retirement security, medical care, and other social welfare programs, which technically account for the entire $1.3 trillion shortfall realized by the federal government in FY 2012, and then some.

Intragovernmental Insanity

The national debt is comprised of debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings. Intragovernmental holdings are debts the federal government owes to itself, a phenomenon only possible within the realm of the criminally insane. For example, as of the end of FY 2012, the Treasury has borrowed a total of $2.7 trillion from the Social Security Administration (its entire Trust Fund), and more recently from federal employee pension funds in order to meet its unmanageable over-inflated obligations. The total debt outstanding has grown from $5.7 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2000 to $16.4 trillion as of January 17, 2013. Included within this figure, intragovernmental debt has grown from $2.3 trillion at the end of fiscal year 2000 to $4.9 trillion as of January 17, 2013 (see table below).

As if the sheer weight of its total debt isn’t bad enough, according to GAO, the federal government can no longer adequately account for and reconcile its intragovernmental activity or the balances owed between federal agencies. Here’s an example. Back on June 28, 2010, the United States Postal Service, Office of Inspector General (OIG) discovered that the Postal Service had made a $75 billion overpayment to the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS). However, since according to Note 24 of the GAO report (page 120), the Civil Service Retirement and Disability, and Civil Service Health Benefits Program Trust Funds are currently $849.1 billion and $240.0 billion in the hole, respectively, why would CSRS care?

USPS to CSRS: “Hey, you guys owe us $75 billion.”

CSRS to USPS: “Hey, give us a break; we’re already over a trillion dollars in the hole.”

USPS to CSRS: “My bad, we keep forgetting.”

World War Infinity

“Prior to 1917, the Congress approved each debt issuance. In 1917, to facilitate planning in World War I, Congress established a dollar ceiling for Federal borrowing. With the Public Debt Act of 1941 (Public Law 77-7), Congress and the President set an overall limit of $65 billion on Treasury debt obligations that could be outstanding at any one time. Since then, Congress and the President have enacted a number of debt limit increases. Most recently, pursuant to the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, the debt limit was raised by $400 billion in August 2011 to $14.694 trillion, by $500 billion in September 2011 to $15.194 trillion, and by $1.2 trillion to $16.394 trillion in January 2012.”

Let’s make this clear. Prior to 1917, Congress approved each and every debt issuance request made by the Treasury Department. It was with the outbreak of the 1st World War that a debt ceiling was first established. This gave the Treasury some latitude in keeping the government afloat without impairing wartime activities. So it would make sense that after the end of World Wars I and II, Congress would resume its role of approving each debt issuance. But instead, the U.S. government has morphed into a permanent war mentality. Now, a small minority of borderline insane pundits are actually advocating for complete removal of any form of debt ceiling. It’s World War Infinity, they surmise. Like spoiled little children, they have conned themselves into believing that the role of government is to borrow and spend our way into a utopian entitlement paradise. Where are the adults?

Material Weaknesses

“In addition to the material weaknesses underlying these major impediments, GAO identified four other material weaknesses. These are the federal government’s inability to (1) determine the full extent to which improper payments occur and reasonably assure that appropriate actions are taken to reduce improper payments, (2) identify and resolve information security control deficiencies and manage information security risks on an ongoing basis, (3) effectively manage its tax collection activities, and (4) effectively monitor and report loans receivable and loan guarantee liabilities.”

While a minority within the realm of the spoiled and irresponsible are vying for total removal of any limits on the national debt, we have just been informed that the federal government has no control over improper payments, no ability to manage information security risks, cannot effectively manage its tax collections, and is unable to effectively monitor and report its loans receivable and its ballooning loan guarantee liabilities. It seems to me that the federal government should get a grip on its internal infrastructure before another dime is borrowed or spent. However, even if the federal government were able to show improvement in these areas, there are other issues on the horizon threatening to derail its entire operation.

Risks and Uncertainty

According to GAO, there are risks that other factors could affect the federal government’s financial condition in the future, including the following:

  • The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is facing a deteriorating financial situation as it reached its borrowing limit of $15 billion in fiscal year 2012 and finished the year with a reported net loss of almost $16 billion.

  • The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reported that its liabilities exceeded its assets by about $15 billion as of September 30, 2012, and that the capital ratio for its Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund fell below zero during the fiscal year. In addition, the ultimate roles of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the mortgage market may further affect FHA’s financial condition.

  • Several initiatives undertaken during the last 4 years by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to stabilize the financial markets have led to a significant change in the composition and size of reported securities on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. The value of these securities, which include mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the Government National Mortgage Association, is subject to interest rate risk and may decline or increase depending on interest rate changes. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve sells these securities at a loss, future payments of Federal Reserve earnings to the federal government may be reduced.

The USPS, FHA, and Federal Reserve are in over their heads, and either technically bankrupt, or soon to be. Yet, the only answer proffered by our so-called leaders in Washington, DC is to keep borrowing. Is this really the only viable solution? The Post Office borrowed $15 billion and then lost almost $16 billion last year. Does that sound like an entity worthy of another loan? Not in my world. It seems to me that instead of continuing to prop it up, it’s time for the USPS to go the way of the dinosaurs. The FHA and Federal Reserve can follow suit.

Also according to GAO, examples of assets and liabilities reported by the federal government that are subject to substantial uncertainty include the following:

  • The federal government’s consolidated financial statements as of September 30, 2012, include approximately $109 billion of investments in two government-sponsored enterprises—the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) (reported net of about $85 billion in valuation losses). In addition, as of September 30, 2012, the financial statements include about $9 billion of liabilities for future payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and disclose a projected maximum remaining potential commitment to these entities of about $282 billion under agreements between Treasury and the entities. The future structures of these two government-sponsored enterprises and the roles they will serve in the mortgage market must still be determined.

  • The federal government reported Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) direct loans and equity investments of approximately $40 billion as of September 30, 2012 (reported net of about $23 billion in valuation losses), of which approximately $20 billion related to loans to and equity investments in certain entities in the automotive industry.

  • The federal government reported that the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation’s (PBGC) liabilities exceeded its assets by about $34 billion as of September 30, 2012. PBGC is subject to further losses if plan terminations that are reasonably possible occur.

In other words, the federal government “invested” $109 billion into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which resulted in $85 billion in valuation losses, yet it plans to invest another $291 billion going forward. Another $63 billion was invested in loans made to TARP, which reported $23 billion in valuation losses ($20 billion of which is attributable to loans made to the auto industry). And the PBGC’s liabilities now exceed its assets by around $34 billion and it may be subject to further losses going forward. And what’s the federal government’s solution? Raise the debt ceiling, borrow more, and keep propping up failed entities, otherwise it fears the whole house of cards may come crashing down. Perhaps it’s time to get real and just go ahead and begin dismantling the entire criminal enterprise, one failed agency, entity and fund at a time.

Conclusion

The GAO was not able to express an opinion on the U.S. government’s financial statements, but that doesn’t stop us from reading between the lines. Either we deal with our fiscal problems now, or later. Leaving my granddaughter’s a legacy of failure is not something I’m willing to support. It’s time to grow up, and demonstrate it by cutting the federal government down to its bare bones. Do this today and we might have a chance; wait until tomorrow, and according to GAO, the U.S.A.’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 395% by fiscal year 2087 and rise continuously thereafter. If Congress raises the federal government’s debt ceiling without fundamental fiscal reform, then we all deserve everything we’ve got coming to us, nothing. Until such reform takes place, government ilk can count me out. Don’t call me, don’t write me, don’t ask me to invest in federal debt issues, and don’t dare ask me for another dime.

References:

Financial Audit: U.S. Government’s Fiscal Years 2012 and 2011 Consolidated Financial Statements

What GAO Found

Related:

War on Wealth III | National Debt Review

Postal Service OIG Discovers $75 Billion Overpayment, Again

Social Security: A Breach of Trust – Notes on 2010 Financial Statements of the U.S. Government

Derailed by Amtrak: The Money Drain

Train Wreck

40 Years in the Wilderness

– By: Larry Walker, Jr. –

Since 1971, the federal government has invested a total of $32.4 billion into the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (a.k.a. “Amtrak”). In return for this lucrative investment of taxpayer’s dollars, Amtrak has accumulated total net losses of $27.1 billion. If we were to average our investment over the last 40 years, it would equal approximately $810 million per year, yet in 2009 and 2010 U.S. taxpayers have pumped in an additional $1.6 billion and $2.4 billion, respectively. Thus it appears that Amtrak’s drain on our collective pocketbook is increasing. Likewise, if we were to average Amtrak’s losses over the past 40 years they would equal approximately $677 million per year, yet in 2009 and 2010 U.S. taxpayers have incurred losses of $1.5 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively. So it appears that our losses are also accelerating.

Paid In Capital

——

Comprehensive Loss

According to the latest independent auditors’ report, which was issued on December 16, 2010, “The Company has a history of substantial operating losses and is dependent upon substantial Federal government subsidies to sustain its operations…. Without such subsidies, Amtrak will not be able to continue to operate in its current form and significant operating changes, restructuring or bankruptcy may occur. Such changes or restructuring would likely result in asset impairments.” And that is exactly what needs to happen. Any entity which is run-by, backed-by, or subsidized-by the federal government and not able to sustain itself without reliance on the general fund should be either privatized, or shut down. The following excerpts are from the independent auditors’ report:

KPMG LLP
1676 International Drive
McLean, VA 22102

Independent Auditors’ Report
The Board of Directors and Stockholders
National Railroad Passenger Corporation:

{….} The Company has a history of substantial operating losses and is dependent upon substantial Federal government subsidies to sustain its operations. The Company is operating under continuing resolutions through December 18, 2010 as discussed in Note 2 to the consolidated financial statements. The Company expects to receive additional interim Federal government funding under continuing resolutions until the fiscal year 2011 funding is approved. There are currently no Federal government subsidies appropriated for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2012 (“fiscal year 2012”). Without such subsidies, Amtrak will not be able to continue to operate in its current form and significant operating changes, restructuring or bankruptcy may occur. Such changes or restructuring would likely result in asset impairments. {….}

December 16, 2010

{….}

NOTE 1: NATURE OF OPERATIONS

The National Railroad Passenger Corporation (“Amtrak” or the “Company”) is a passenger railroad. The United States government (the “Federal Government”) through the United States Department of Transportation (the “DOT”) owns all issued and outstanding preferred stock. Amtrak’s principal business is to provide rail passenger transportation service in the major intercity travel markets of the United States. The Company also operates commuter rail operations on behalf of several states and transit agencies, provides equipment and right-of-way maintenance services, and has leasing operations.

NOTE 2: BUSINESS CONDITION AND LIQUIDITY
Operations and Liquidity

Amtrak was incorporated in 1971 pursuant to the Rail Passenger Service Act of 1970 and is authorized to operate a nationwide system of passenger rail transportation. The Company has a history of recurring operating losses and is dependent on subsidies from the Federal Government to operate the national passenger rail system and maintain the underlying infrastructure. These subsidies are usually received through annual appropriations. In recent fiscal years appropriated funds for Amtrak have been provided to the DOT, which through its agency the Federal Railroad Administration (the “FRA”), provides those funds to Amtrak pursuant to operating funds and capital funds grant agreements, respectively. Amtrak’s ability to continue operating in its current form is dependent upon the continued receipt of subsidies from the Federal Government.

{….}

Audited Consolidated Financial Statements – Fiscal Year 2010

I love traveling by Amtrak but, to be honest, I have only ridden with them two or three times in the last 40 years. Amtrak, we love you, but you’ve got to go. If Amtrak is not able to make a profit, and thus return money to its investors, namely us, then what good is it? I could have flown to Cleveland for half the price that I paid for a sleeper car, and in a couple of hours versus the twenty-four that it took Amtrak. I literally can’t believe that having paid over $1,500 to ride from Atlanta to Cleveland, and back, that these guys can’t make a profit. I mean come on. Investing more public money into new rails and high speed trains is not the answer. Do you really believe that more people will ride trains if they were just a little bit faster? One can only imagine how much higher the fares (and losses) would be after such nonsense.

Capitalization (click to enlarge)

It’s time to fish, or cut bait. If the private sector can’t make Amtrak profitable, then it can’t be done. Private investors are not dumb enough to continue investing in something month-after-month, year-after-year which has never and will never return a profit, nor are taxpayers. If Amtrak were owned by the private sector, it would be no more. That’s just the way it is in the real-world. At the same time, if there is any hope at all, it lies within the private sector. It’s easy for the government to keep flushing good money down the drain, because it’s not their money. It’s our money, so let us make the choice. No one said it was going to be easy. It’s time to dump Amtrak.

The mandate: Amtrak will make the necessary structural changes to become profitable without additional governmental subsidies, and will return the taxpayers investment to the U.S. Treasury by the end of this fiscal year. If Amtrak continues to incur losses over the current fiscal year, then at close of business on September 30, 2011, its assets shall be sold and all proceeds returned to the Treasury.

Photo: http://media.photobucket.com/image/trainwreck+/rcoiteux/TrainWreck01.jpg

Source: Audited Consolidated Financial Statements – Fiscal Year 2010