national_debt

Paying The National Debt For Dummies

/ L. M. Walker / 2 Comments

Amortization Schedule - click to enlarge

The Federal Government can pay off the National Debt in 30 years by making interest and principal payments of $699,013,323,930.52 per year. In Fiscal Year 2009 the government made interest payments of $383,656,592,545.78. So it would only take another $315,356,731,384.74 per year, or about $1,051 per capita to completely extinguish the debt. Since this will cost $8,883,038,042,900.88 in interest (at 4% over 30 years), I would suggest that you get started right away.

If you politicians were serious about fiscal responsibility, surely you could find a way to cut spending by $315,356,731,384.74 per year. I mean after all, many of you are claiming that more than that is wasted on Medicare each year.

The only condition for taking this bold step is that you stop deficit spending ‘now’. Pay the debt, end the deficits, stop making excuses, and quit playing games.

Source:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/ir/ir_expense.htm

The Raw Truth: GDP vs National Debt

/ L. M. Walker / 3 Comments

GDP vs National Debt – The Raw Truth

I am still mulling over the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ recent, erroneous, GDP projection after my last post Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Mumbo Jumbo. One aspect that was not addressed previously was the pace at which our National Debt is catching up to annual GDP.

The question for today is what will Gross Domestic Product need to be in 2019 in order to keep pace with the Federal Government’s ruinous spending? And based on the answer to that, at what pace must the economy grow annually?

click to enlarge

If we add the CBO’s 2010 to 2019 projected budget deficit of $7,137.0 billion to our current national debt of $12,087.3 billion, then the National Debt will total $19,224.3 billion by the year 2019. At the same time, GDP is averaging $14,198.5 billion annually. Thus, if our economy does not grow over the next 10 years, the National Debt will soon exceed GDP. [Note: GDP represents the amount that our economy can produce in a year.]

I know that the ‘hope and change’ crowd will say, “So what, It does not matter as long as the interest payments don’t exceed GDP”, or some other lame reasoning. However, I choose to look back to the days when the economy was growing at 5% per year with low unemployment. After all, surely America had some banner years in the past. The question should be, “how do we return to a more reasonable Debt-to-GDP ratio?” Not, “how far can we go before the economy breaks?”

Thus, the first scenario, below, determines the rate of growth necessary in order for GDP to match our projected debt. The second scenario determines the rate of growth needed in order to return to the 2003 debt-to-GDP ratio of 62.8%. Finally scenario three simply states the obvious.

Scenario #1 – The Road to Nowhere

GDP must grow from $14,198.5 to $19,224.3 billion in order to equal the National Debt by 2019. In other words, GDP must increase by $5,025.8 over the ten year period. This represents an increase of 35.4% for the period. That means that GDP must grow at a rate of 3.54% per year in order to equal our National Debt by 2019. As I clarified in my last post, GDP is currently declining at the rate of 1.21% per year, so although this is achievable, we still have a ways to go on this road to nowhere.

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Scenario #2 – Back to 2003

In order to return to the more prosperous, albeit not the most optimal, 2003 Debt-to-GDP ratio of 62.8%, annual GDP must grow to $30,611.9 by 2019. In other words, GDP must increase by $16,413.4 billion, over 10 years, in order for the National Debt to equal 62.8% of GDP. That equals a percentage increase of 116.0% over the 10 year period. In other words GDP must grow at the rate of 11.6% per year, over the next 10 years in order to return to the 2003 Debt-to-GDP ratio.

Scenario #3 – Stop Spending Money that we don’t have.

Of course there are many possible scenarios. One common sense scenario would be to stop spending money that we don’t have. I don’t think it’s possible to grow the economy at 11.6% per year. At least I don’t see any plans from the Congress, the Senate, or Obama that would come anywhere close. In fact, their current plans do nothing to increase GDP, but rather are focused shamefully on doubling the National Debt. And you know what that means: higher taxes, and higher interest rates, leading to less economic growth.

Conclusion

GDP must grow at an annual rate of 3.54% in order to equal the National Debt by 2019, a road to nowhere. GDP must grow at an annual rate of 11.6% in order to return to the 2003 Debt-to-GDP ratio of 62.8% by 2019. Government spending needs to be cut dramatically, and immediately. Any plan that falls short of scenarios #2 and #3 is not a plan. That’s the raw truth.

Sources:

GAO FINANCIAL AUDIT Bureau of the Public Debt’s Fiscal Years 2007 – 2008

CBO Budget Projections through 2019

Treasury Direct – Historical National Debt

Obama: Ready to Go!

/ L. M. Walker / 2 Comments

Most American’s were ready for Obama to go before his term started. Now after nine month’s in office, the first affirmative action POTUS declares that he is ‘ready to go’. I don’t know where he’s planning to go, but I suspect that it’s not anywhere that the rest of America would care to venture. Let’s review Obama’s performance as CEO of the United States.

According to the Associated Press, the Federal Budget deficit has surged to an all-time high of $1.42 trillion as tax revenues plunged while the Obama Administration was spending massive amounts on the way to its undeclared destination. The Obama Administration has projected that its deficits will total $9.1 trillion over the next decade.

For 2009, the Government collected $2.10 trillion in revenues, a 16.6% drop from 2008. That was the largest percentage decline in records going back nearly seven decades. Meanwhile, Government spending last year jumped to $3.52 trillion, up 18.2% over 2008, the biggest percentage increase since a 23.4% jump in 1975.

In the private sector, a CEO with such a record would not be able to weasel his way out of being fired through clever rhetoric. In fact, a search committee would be formed, with haste, to locate a new CEO who specializes in turnarounds. If Obama were not the current POTUS, it is highly doubtful that a man with his lack of experience and qualifications would be sought for the job.

The Review

Let me get this straight, Obama, you lost $1.42 trillion in your first nine months. You generated revenues of just $2.10 trillion, while you spent $3.52 trillion? And your plan is to lose another $7.68 trillion for a total of $9.1 trillion over the next ten years? And now you say, “I’m fired up and ready to go?” Well, you can go alright. You can go right now. In fact, YOU’RE FIRED!

You know, there is a Constitutional provision whereby a POTUS may be forced to leave office before his term ends. It’s called impeachment. Don’t rule it out. By the way, this isn’t personal, it’s business.

Reference:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10603996