Bail and Fail | Obama’s Bank Rescue Sham

On Friday, April 30th, the FDIC reported 7 additional bank closings including three banks in Puerto Rico. It’s ironic that Congress passed a bill asking Puerto Rico if it wants statehood on the same day.

This brings the total number of bank failures under Obama to 204. The total number of bank failures in April was 23, and the year-to-date figure is 64. You can thank left-wing Progressives like Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and some on the right for the continued destruction and consolidation which is happening in the banking sector. I am now projecting that 195 banks will fail this year.

Meanwhile, approximately $370 billion of the $700 billion TARP fund sits on the sidelines, while troubled assets remain on many bank’s balance sheets dragging them under. Wasn’t that money supposed to be used to get rid of toxic assets? Well, if Progressives are going to sit idly by and watch banks fail, then they need to give us back our $370 billion. The other $330 billion appears to be a total loss. Obama and his Progressive entourage should claim it, cut their (our) losses, and prepare for defeat at the polls.

Remember that these are the same Progressives who hate banks and corporations and who will stop at nothing in their efforts to destroy our free enterprise system and turn America into a state run socialist utopia. They must be defeated.

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Below is a list of the 23 banks that failed in April of 2010.

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Below is a comprehensive listing of the 204 banks that have failed since Obama took the reigns. There were 25 bank failures in 2008, and 3 in 2007 making the total for the present crisis 232. In contrast, during the S&L Crisis of the 1980’s and 1990’s there were 747 S&L failures at a total cost of $160.1 billion.

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Source: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Real Financial Reform, Part II | The Shawmut Redemption

The Shawmut Redemption…

Reforms that need reform…

Compiled by: Larry Walker, Jr. –

On November 16, 1993, the New York Times reported the following:

In a move showing banking regulators’ increased emphasis on ending loan discrimination, the Federal Reserve Board has, for the first time, blocked a large bank merger because of concern over possible bias against minority groups in mortgage lending.

By a 3-to-3 vote, with one abstention, the Fed declined to approve the Shawmut National Corporation’s acquisition of the New Dartmouth Bank of Manchester, N.H., because of concern that Shawmut, based in Hartford, may not have complied with fair-lending laws.

The Justice Department is investigating a Shawmut subsidiary, the Shawmut Mortgage Company, for possible lending bias…

“Obviously we’re disappointed with the decision,” said Brent Di Giorgio, a spokesman for Shawmut, which has $27 billion in assets. “Notwithstanding the decision, Shawmut is proud of its lending record to minorities.”

Over the last year Shawmut has begun several programs to increase lending to low-income Americans and minority groups that some community activists say have made Shawmut a leader in the industry.

These programs include establishing mortgages with down payments of as little as 2.5 percent that use more flexible income criteria, hiring more minority mortgage staff workers and sending around home buyers from minority groups to check that Shawmut employees are not discriminating.

“The Fed is sending a strong signal to the banking industry that they’re going to be looking at banks’ lending practices,” said Joseph Duwan, a banking analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. “Clearly Shawmut is being made a little bit of scapegoat.”

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/11/17/business/fed-stops-bank-merger-cites-lending-concerns.html

The End of Shawmut National

So what happened to Shawmut National Corporation? Two years after being extorted by the Federal government, in conjunction with various social justice organizations, the bank ceased to exist. Let’s follow the trail from the end of Shawmut, to the $700 billion dollar Federal Bank Bailout:

1995 – Fleet Financial Group, Inc. acquires Shawmut National Corp.

1996 – Fleet Financial Group Inc. acquires Westminster Bancorp

1999 – Fleet Financial Corp. acquires BostonBank Corp. and becomes FleetBoston Financial Corp.

2001 – FleetBoston Financial Corp. acquires Summit Bancorp.

2004 – Bank of America Corp. acquires FleetBoston Financial Corp. for $47 billion.

2005 – Bank of America acquires MBNA Corporation and becomes Bank of America Card Services for $35 billion.

2007 – Bank of America acquires LaSalle Bank for $21 billion.

2007 – Bank of America acquires US Trust and becomes Bank of America Private Wealth Management

2008 – Bank of America acquires Countrywide Financial for $4.1 billion and Merrill Lynch for $50 billion as part of the Bailout deal.

2009 – The Federal Government invests $45 billion of taxpayer’s money in Bank of America through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Bank of America’s pays back the $45 billion along with $4.5 billion in dividends and fees.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bank_mergers_in_the_United_States

http://seekingalpha.com/article/60966-bofa-s-countrywide-acquisition-dumb-and-dumber

The Bailout

The Federal government’s solution was of course to create new agencies, more regulations, and to spend more borrowed money with the excuse that this time it will be different. Although it claims that it could make money as did off of Bank of America, so far, the US Treasury, Office of Financial Stability’s $700 billion bailout has, through 4/30/10, disbursed $517.1 billion, been repaid $186.9 billion, and is owed a balance of $330.2 billion.

http://bailout.propublica.org/main/list/index

1993 to 1995

So what happened in-between Shawmut National’s reprimand, the denial by the Fed to acquire other banks, and it’s ultimate demise?

William A. Niskanen, in his May/June 1995 Cato Policy Report, got it right when he stated that, “Redistributive rules among or between buyers and sellers, however, usually lead one or more parties to leave the market.” His reasoning was correct. His prediction was dead on. The arguments he posed way back then are worthy of repeating.

He said, “A market is where people come to make exchanges. Every market has its own rules, and markets thrive or wither, in part, depending on the choice of those rules. Clear rules for payment; the penalties for nonpayment, fraud, and nonperformance; and the rules for resolving disputes, for example, usually induce growth of the market, increasing the expected net benefit to each party. Redistributive rules among or between buyers and sellers, however, usually lead one or more parties to leave the market. U.S. financial markets today face several major new policy threats. Most of the new threats have a common pattern: the government is using existing regulatory authority or proposing new authority to aid some parties in the market at the expense of others.”

Mr. Niskanen continued, “Federal bank regulators and the Department of Justice have increasingly reinterpreted their authority under existing law to develop an extensive system of credit allocation. The four statutes under which bank regulations are issued are the Fair Housing Act of 1968, the Equal Credit Opportunity Act of 1974, the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act of 1975, and, most important, the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977. The common objective of those four laws was to reduce the alleged discrimination in bank lending to minorities. I say “alleged” because the premise that banks discriminate is both implausible and unsupported.”

With regard to Shawmut National Corporation, he continued, “In summary, there is no consistent evidence that banks discriminate among loan applicants by race, either consciously or inadvertently. In Washington, however, no good deed goes unpunished. Two major banks with records of outreach to minority borrowers have been subjected by the Department of Justice to what is best described as extortion. In a major 1993 case, following actions against three small banks, the Federal Reserve held up approval of several proposed acquisitions by Shawmut National Corporation pending resolution of a discrimination suit brought by Justice against Shawmut’s mortgage company subsidiary. The facts of the case are clear. During the period when the alleged discrimination occurred, Shawmut had an aggressive program to increase mortgage lending to minority applicants. Shawmut relaxed its normal lending criteria, substantially reduced the rejection rate on loan applications by minorities, and doubled the amount of new mortgage lending to minorities. Although no private person filed a discrimination complaint, the Department of Justice charged Shawmut with discrimination, based on findings that some of the loan officers had not been as aggressive as others in approving loans to minority applicants and that Shawmut had no internal review procedure to ensure that all the loan officers used the same lending criteria. In order to remove the barrier to approval of its proposed acquisitions, Shawmut agreed to settle that absurd case, set aside $1 million as a settlement fee, and worked with Justice to find some “victims” of the alleged discrimination to share the fee.”

http://www.cato.org/pubs/policy_report/pr-mj-ni.html

My Conclusion:

The chickens have come home to roost. The Progressives got what they wanted. Loans were made to people who should not have gotten them, who could not afford them, and who were bad credit risks in order to satisfy unreasonable government policies. In other words, the banks came up with whatever programs were necessary to ensure that anyone who applied for a loan got one. That took care of there ever being any question that a loan was denied based on racial discrimination. The banks used Option ARMs, no-doc, stated income or whatever it took to comply with the extortion. And what happened? The buck got passed. Banks were sold and acquired. Loans were packaged, sold and re-sold until they finally came back to their source, right smack in the government’s lap. The entire banking system nearly collapsed, and the Federal government came close to taking out the entire global economy. And it’s not over yet.

Have progressive politicians learned their lesson? Apparently not, as we see today, the progressives are trying to blame the crisis on those who simply carried out their warped policies. They are demonizing bank executives, Wall Street, Corporations, stock traders, and any and everyone who carried out their wishes. But it doesn’t take a degree from Harvard to figure out who’s really to blame. All one needs to do is look at how a progressive government manages itself. It is $13 trillion dollars in debt. Its trusted reserves of Social Security and Medicare have been emptied and left with IOU’s. And now it is heading towards $22 trillion of debt by the year 2020.

Obama had one thing right though, we do need to fundamentally transform the USA. However, that’s the only thing he got right. Policy-wise, he’s on the wrong track. He only offers to make a bad situation worse. Community organizers like Obama are part of the problem, not the solution. You cannot fix a problem when you are the problem. What America needs is a radical return to its founding principles of limited government, and free enterprise. We’ll know that we’re on the right track when every culpable progressive dimwit has been placed behind bars.

Real Financial Reform, Part I: The Option ARM

click to enlarge

Compiled by: Larry Walker, Jr.

While Progressives, both left and right, feign anger arguing the merits of criminalizing Goldman Sachs, one of the most profitable companies remaining in the United States, folks on Main Street are contemplating the real cause of the economic crisis of 2007. At least, that’s what I’m pondering.

For example, in reviewing the Office of Inspector General’s report regarding the fall of Downey Savings and Loan Association (Downey) it is clear to me that firms like Goldman Sachs were not the source of the problem. Punishing Goldman Sachs for profiting from a ‘crummy deal’ does not get to the root of the problem, nor will it prevent the next crisis. Where Senator Carl Levin fell short was in that, he failed to investigate the origination of the ‘crummy deals’ which continue to run rampant from coast to coast. But that’s what happens when you let amateur government workers have too much power.

_________________________________

Downey was taken over on November 21, 2008 by the FDIC at a cost of $1.4 billion. This placed it into the top ten most expensive institutions taken over by the FDIC during this crisis. It is revealing to note that in the report, we are told that the primary cause of Downey’s collapse was its high concentration of option adjustable rate (ARM) loans and its lack of documentation in loans:

“The primary causes of Downey’s failure were the thrift’s high concentrations in single-family residential loans which included concentrations in option adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) loans, reduced documentation loans, subprime loans, and loans with layered risk; inadequate risk-monitoring systems; the thrift’s unresponsiveness to OTS recommendations; and high turnover in the thrift’s management. These conditions were exacerbated by the drop in real estate values in Downey’s markets.”

The OTS made constant recommendations to the bank but of course, the OTS was stripped to the very minimum because of bank lobbying over the past decade. The policy implication here becomes radically clear that if we are to have a legitimate oversight board, it must have the power to enact regulations on the books. That is probably one thing many people fail to understand right now. Many of the regulations necessary are already on the books. Yet the bodies governing these policies are so weak and pathetic, that banks were able to ramrod legislation that essentially made them shells with no ability to enforce the laws.’

Downey by the end of 2005 at the height of the bubble had 91 percent of its single family home loan portfolio in option ARMs. They basically went 100 percent with this toxic product. 73 percent of Downey’s option ARMs had negative amortization potential which of course did occur and imploded the bank. Just take a look at this stunning chart:

As the chart shows, Downey was in the game early on. Thus, their recast of 5 years on their typical option ARM started imploding much earlier and led to their demise in 2008 even before the major wave of option ARMs will swarm the market in 2010 through 2012. The disturbing facts also come out regarding teaser introductory rates which artificially allowed people to buy more home than they could afford. With the availability of “no-doc” loans anyone with a desire to get a loan got one. The fact that 91 percent of their SFR loan portfolio is option ARMs is appalling. Institutions in California basically created a casino with housing even though agencies knew of the longer term implications. In regards to policy, this gives us clear implications:

  1. Do not bailout any mortgage product that is an option ARM.
  2. Government agencies overseeing these institutions must have teeth to act and stop companies before things get out of hand. Imagine the police with no power to enforce the laws on the book.
  3. Clearly these products had no life outside of the bubble. They should be labeled as such and any institutions engaging in these products goes forward at their own risk. No bailouts ever.

_________________________________

The bottom line, in Part I, is that Goldman Sachs was not in the loan origination business, and thus had nothing to do with the root cause of the financial crisis of 2007. Most of the culprits, banks who originated crummy deals, have already gone out of business. From January of 2009, through April 23rd of this year, there have been 197 bank failures. Of a certainty, there will be many more. The real questions should be (1) who legalized Option ARM’s?, and (2) who was responsible for regulating them? Try starting there and get back to me when you have a serious solution to a serious governmental failure.

Definitions:

Option ARMs
An “option ARM” is typically a 30-year ARM that initially offers the borrower four monthly payment options: a specified minimum payment, an interest-only payment, a 15-year fully amortizing payment, and a 30-year fully amortizing payment.

These types of loans are also called “pick-a-payment” or “pay-option” ARMs.

When a borrower makes a Pay-Option ARM payment that is less than the accruing interest, there is “negative amortization”, which means that the unpaid portion of the accruing interest is added to the outstanding principal balance. For example, if the borrower makes a minimum payment of $1,000 and the ARM has accrued monthly interest in arrears of $1,500, $500 will be added to the borrower’s loan balance. Moreover, the next month’s interest-only payment will be calculated using the new, higher principal balance.

Option ARMs are often offered with a very low teaser rate (often as low as 1%) which translates into very low minimum payments for the first year of the ARM. During boom times, lenders often underwrite borrowers based on mortgage payments that are below the fully amortizing payment level. This enables borrowers to qualify for a much larger loan (i.e., take on more debt) than would otherwise be possible. When evaluating an Option ARM, prudent borrowers will not focus on the teaser rate or initial payment level, but will consider the characteristics of the index, the size of the “mortgage margin” that is added to the index value, and the other terms of the ARM. Specifically, they need to consider the possibilities that (1) long-term interest rates go up; (2) their home may not appreciate or may even lose value or even (3) that both risks may materialize.

Option ARMs are best suited to sophisticated borrowers with growing incomes, particularly if their incomes fluctuate seasonally and they need the payment flexibility that such an ARM may provide. Sophisticated borrowers will carefully manage the level of negative amortization that they allow to accrue.

In this way, a borrower can control the main risk of an Option ARM, which is “payment shock”, when the negative amortization and other features of this product can trigger substantial payment increases in short periods of time.

The minimum payment on an Option ARM can jump dramatically if its unpaid principal balance hits the maximum limit on negative amortization (typically 110% to 125% of the original loan amount). If that happens, the next minimum monthly payment will be at a level that would fully amortize the ARM over its remaining term. In addition, Option ARMs typically have automatic “recast” dates (often every fifth year) when the payment is adjusted to get the ARM back on pace to amortize the ARM in full over its remaining term.

For example, a $200,000 ARM with a 110% “neg am” cap will typically adjust to a fully amortizing payment, based on the current fully-indexed interest rate and the remaining term of the loan, if negative amortization causes the loan balance to exceed $220,000. For a 125% recast, this will happen if the loan balance reaches $250,000.

Any loan that is allowed to generate negative amortization means that the borrower is reducing his equity in his home, which increases the chance that he won’t be able to sell it for enough to repay the loan. Declining property values would exacerbate this risk.

Option ARMs may also be available as “hybrids,” with longer fixed-rate periods. These products would not be likely to have low teaser rates. As a result, such ARMs mitigate the possibility of negative amortization, and would likely not appeal to borrowers seeking an “affordability” product.

References/Sources:

My Budget 360

Obama’s Bank Failures | Too Busy To Care

Through April 23, 2010, there have been 57 bank failures. That’s 57 in 113 days, or a failure rate of 50.4%. In 2009 there were 140 bank failures at a failure rate of 38.4%. So it’s been more than a year since the problem was ‘solved’, and the rate of bank failures has actually increased. In contrast, there were only 25 bank failures in 2008, 3 in 2007, none in 2005 or 2006, and only 22 from 2001 through 2004.

Wow, seven banks in his own back yard. We’ll see if he cares now, or whether he maintains the ‘quo’. Perhaps another round of golf is the cure!

Obama says he wants “…to get a better idea of what our options are…”. Well, here you go: (1) Crash and Burn, (2) Drastically Cut Government Borrowing and Spending, or (3) Burn and Crash. It’s not rocket science. Make an executive decision.

Reference:

FDIC Failed Bank List

Obama’s Bank Failures | Too Little to Save

By: Larry Walker, Jr.

After decades of failed government policies, from James Earl Carter, Jr. (Jimmy), to Barack Hussein Obama, II (Barry), it appears that policy makers haven’t learned a thing. After pouring billions of taxpayer dollars down the drain to fix the credit crisis, over a year has passed, and the problem isn’t fixed. While Obama and his minions now focus on controlling the Big financial institutions, the little guys, like the ones in your community are failing at the rate of one every other day.

And what is Obama’s solution to the destruction of capital occurring in our communities?

  1. To Add more than $10 trillion to the National Debt over the next 10 years, thus hogging up capital badly needed by community banks, and leading to higher interest rates.

  2. To tell citizens that they should be grateful, to him, that they got a $400 annual tax credit, paid for by higher taxes, and to just be quiet. – ‘Don’t patronize me.’

  3. To dole out $8,000, and $6,500 refundable home buyer tax credits, not realizing that it’s actually very difficult to get a home loan from failing banks. Not to mention impossible for the 10-20% of the workforce who are unemployed.

  4. To extend unemployment benefits, which doesn’t lead to job creation.

  5. To sit back, give an occasional pep rally to his constituency, make deals with America’s enemies, and alienate fellow Americans who have the solution.

In other words, he doesn’t have a solution. The only solution that a problem can have is to eliminate itself. Obama and his big government, ‘welfare state’ philosophy is the current problem. The only solution is to eliminate the problem. Everyday that Obama borrows and spends, borrows and spends, borrows and spends, pushes us that much farther from a solution, and thrusts us deeper and deeper into the problem.

Through April 16, 2010, there have been 50 bank failures. That’s 50 in 106 days, or a failure rate of 47.2%. In 2009 there were 140 bank failures at a failure rate of 38.4%. So it’s been more than a year since the problem was ‘solved’, and the rate of bank failures has actually increased. In contrast, there were only 25 bank failures in 2008, 3 in 2007, none in 2005 or 2006, and only 22 from 2001 through 2004.

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Failed Bank List - Click to Enlarge

References: FDIC Failed Bank List

Final: Obamacare | The Macro View

The Endgame

Catch 22 –

By: Larry Walker, Jr. –

Point #1 – As I pointed out previously here, and as you can see in the top portion of the table below, Mr. Obama has outlined a budget which contains deficit spending of $-3.7 trillion more than the CBO’s Baseline Budget, between the years 2011 and 2020. The CBO’s Baseline Budget was already $-5.9 trillion in the red for the budget years 2011 through 2020. If you start with fiscal year 2010, the CBO’s Baseline Budget deficit was already $-7.3 trillion. The CBO’s estimate of the President’s budget calls for total deficit spending of $-11.2 trillion beginning with fiscal year 2010 and ending in fiscal year 2020. (Note: The baseline budget total is for 2011-2020, so you have to add 2010 to get this figure.) Now if you add the President’s budget deficit of $-11.2 trillion to our National Debt which was $-12.1 trillion at the end of 2009, then the national debt will reach $-23.3 trillion by the year 2020.

Table 1 - Click to Enlarge

Point #2 – You will note in the bottom half of the table above (re-posted below), that the National Debt, which was $-12.11 trillion at the end of 2009, is projected to grow to $-22.12 trillion by the year 2019. (Note: The totals on this table end with fiscal year 2019 to correspond with the scoring of Obamacare.) This represents a percentage increase of 82.6% over the 10 year period. So before Obamacare, the President was already on target to increase our National Debt by 82.6% over the present decade.

Point #3 – Also in the table below, you will note that after implementing Obamacare, if one adds in the savings projected by the CBO of $119 billion over the first decade, then the National Debt is projected to grow to just $-22.00 trillion, or a percentage increase of 81.6% over the decade. This means that Obamacare will decrease the rate of growth of the national debt by just 1.0% in the first decade (82.6% vs 81.6%). In other words, by the year 2019, the National Debt will either be $-22.00 trillion with Obamacare, or $-22.12 trillion without it. (Note: I omitted the other $19 billion of savings which the CBO projected because I do not believe it to be attributable to Obamacare, however this is diminimus.)

Table 2 - Click to Enlarge

Point #4 – You will note that the CBO projects the savings from Obamacare to be $102 billion over the first five years, and only $17 billion over the second five, for a total of $119 billion in the first decade. The greatest savings appear in the years 2013 and 2014, $50 billion and $47 billion respectively. Why would anyone believe that there would suddenly be savings of over $1 trillion in the second decade, when the rate of savings decreases so dramatically in just the second five year period? If you study the numbers closely, the rate of savings from Obamacare declines by 83% from the first five years to the second. Yet, we are expected to believe that the rate of savings will suddenly jump by 740% (to over $1 trillion) during the second decade. This is simply unrealistic. Not to mention, unreliable, because the CBO calculated the savings rate in the second decade as a percentage of GDP. What we don’t have from the CBO is a projection of the Federal Budget that far out. If budget deficits continue to soar during the second decade after Obamacare, then any savings projected will be nullified.

Point # 5 – With government spending so out of control – with the national debt projected to grow to either $-22.12 trillion without, or $-22.00 trillion with Obamacare by 2019 – with the national debt projected to grow by either 82.6% without Obamacare, or 81.6% with it – it’s as if Obama and his Progressive colleagues have chosen to stick their heads in the sand, and to ignore the problem. The problem being the inability to pay for current federal programs. They are giddy and claiming victory because they think they have finally come up with a deficit neutral program, but what have they really done?

What have they done? – The term ‘deficit neutral’ implies that a program is implemented in a way that will not add to the deficit. But what does it mean for us as relates to Obamacare? What does it mean when government spending is already out of control? It means that the government will raise around $500 billion in new taxes, fees and fines in order to pay for a new entitlement program, Obamacare. It’s one thing to raise revenues in order to begin to balance the existing budget, but entirely another to ignore the debt, and to take more money out of our pockets for a new program. Meanwhile, the National Debt continues to grow at essentially the same rate.

Obamacare solves nothing. By the year 2020, the national debt will be nearly twice the amount of our current GDP. If we don’t take the debt crisis seriously, then by the year 2020 there will be no Obamacare, no Social Security, no Medicare, no Education, no Defense, and possibly not even a United States of America. Obamacare and its sister entitlement programs are not the solution to our problems, Obamacare and its sister entitlement programs are the problem.

Sources:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/112xx/doc11231/budgetprojections.xls
Obamacare: A Fiscal Point of View Updated!

Revised: Obamacare | The Macro View

Catch 22 –

By: Larry Walker, Jr. –

Point #1 – As I pointed out previously here, and as you can see in the top portion of the table below, Mr. Obama has outlined a budget which contains deficit spending of $-3.7 trillion more than the CBO’s Baseline Budget, between the years 2011 and 2020. The CBO’s Baseline Budget was already $-5.9 trillion in the red for the budget years 2011 through 2020. If you start with fiscal year 2010, the CBO’s Baseline Budget deficit was already $-7.3 trillion. The CBO’s estimate of the President’s budget calls for total deficit spending of $-11.2 trillion beginning with fiscal year 2010 and ending in fiscal year 2020. (Note: The baseline budget total is for 2011-2020, so you have to add 2010 to get this figure.) Now if you add the President’s budget deficit of $-11.2 trillion to our National Debt which was $-12.1 trillion at the end of 2009, then the national debt will reach $-23.3 trillion by the year 2020.

Table 1 - Click to Enlarge

Point #2 – You will note in the bottom half of the table above (re-posted below), that the National Debt, which was $-12.11 trillion at the end of 2009, is projected to grow to $-22.12 trillion by the year 2019. (Note: The totals on this table end with fiscal year 2019 to correspond with the scoring of Obamacare.) This represents a percentage increase of 82.6% over the 10 year period. So before Obamacare, the President was already on target to increase our National Debt by 82.6% over the present decade.

Point #3 – Also in the table below, you will note that after implementing Obamacare, if one adds in the savings projected by the CBO of $119 billion over the first decade, then the National Debt is projected to grow to just $-22.00 trillion, or a percentage increase of 81.6% over the decade. This means that Obamacare will decrease the rate of growth of the national debt by just 1.0% in the first decade (82.6% vs 81.6%). In other words, by the year 2019, the National Debt will either be $-22.00 trillion with Obamacare, or $-22.12 trillion without it. (Note: I omitted the other $19 billion of savings which the CBO projected because I do not believe it to be attributable to Obamacare, however this is diminimus.)

Table 2 - Click to Enlarge

Point #4 – You will note that the CBO projects the savings from Obamacare to be $102 billion over the first five years, and only $17 billion over the second five, for a total of $119 billion in the first decade. The greatest savings appear in the years 2013 and 2014, $50 billion and $47 billion respectively. Why would anyone believe that there would suddenly be savings of over $1 trillion in the second decade, when the rate of savings decreases so dramatically in just the second five year period? If you study the numbers closely, the rate of savings from Obamacare declines by 83% from the first five years to the second. Yet, we are expected to believe that the rate of savings will suddenly jump by 740% (to over $1 trillion) during the second decade. This is simply unrealistic. Not to mention, unreliable, because the CBO calculated the savings rate in the second decade as a percentage of GDP. What we don’t have from the CBO is a projection of the Federal Budget that far out. If budget deficits continue to soar during the second decade after Obamacare, then any savings projected will be nullified.

Point # 5 – With government spending so out of control – with the national debt projected to grow to either $-22.12 trillion without, or $-22.00 trillion with Obamacare by 2019 – with the national debt projected to grow by either 82.6% without Obamacare, or 81.6% with it – it’s as if Obama and his Progressive colleagues have chosen to stick their heads in the sand, and to ignore the problem. The problem being the inability to pay for current federal programs. They are giddy and claiming victory because they think they have finally come up with a deficit neutral program, but what have they really done?

What have they done? – The term ‘deficit neutral’ implies that a program is implemented in a way that will not add to the deficit. But what does it mean for us as relates to Obamacare? What does it mean when government spending is already out of control? It means that the government will raise around $500 billion in new taxes, fees and fines in order to pay for a new entitlement program, Obamacare. It’s one thing to raise revenues in order to begin to balance the existing budget, but entirely another to ignore the debt, and to take more money out of our pockets for a new program. Meanwhile, the National Debt continues to grow at essentially the same rate. Obamacare solves nothing. By the year 2020, the national debt will be nearly twice the amount of our current GDP. If we don’t take the debt crisis seriously, then by the year 2020 there will be no Obamacare, no Social Security, no Medicare, no Education, no Defense, and possibly not even a United States of America. Obamacare and its sister entitlement programs are not the solution to our problems, Obamacare and its sister entitlement programs are the problem.

Sources:

http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/NPGateway

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/112xx/doc11231/budgetprojections.xls

Obamacare: A Fiscal Point of View Updated!

Obamacare: A Fiscal Point of View | Updated!

Obamacare: A Fiscal Conservative’s Point of View

– By: Larry Walker Jr. –

Paying for Obamacare, which we can not afford, sounds like the same strategy used to grant people their other Government given right, the right to buy a home, even if they couldn’t afford one. With housing, the Government made lenders come up with scams like interest only loans, variable interest rate loans, and other devices to make a home affordable ‘today’, with hopes that things would work themselves out in the future. That plan caused millions of people to lose their homes and nearly bankrupted the entire global financial industry. That’s the danger. Now the facts.

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The table above reveals the Congressional Budget Office’s March 2009 Baseline Projections which were used around the time the Senate’s health care bill was scored. Nothing new here. The United States Federal Government has a problem with out of control spending. The National debt is out of control and at that time was projected to reach $18.7 trillion by the year 2019.

Click to Enlarge

The above table attempts to show you the effect of Obamacare on the National Debt. Since Obamacare is projected to save $82 billion through 2019, I have simply applied the CBO’s initial scoring of the Senate Bill on a straight-line basis (an equal amount for each year). I used straight-line because no one really knows how they come up with this stuff. So after Obamacare, we would save $82 billion over 10 years, right. Well, actually, since the Government was already projected to overspend by $8,824 billion ($8.8 trillion for the math weary) over the rest of the decade, this only represents a savings of 0.93%. And remember, that’s a savings of the amount of deficit spending, not a reduction to the National Debt. Deficit spending is deficit spending in my view.

Click to Enlarge

The final table (above) reveals the revised debt projections as published by the White House. As you can see, just through the year 2013, the Government is already projected to spend $1 trillion more than what was projected in March of 2009. So Obama will already spend $1 trillion more than he projected, and now he’s proposing to knock that down by a whopping $82 billion over 10 years, by destroying the health care industry. And we’re supposed to be happy?

Conclusion: The President is very sincere in his efforts to justify Obamacare as a means of fiscal responsibility. However, he fails to address the main problem – Out of Control Government Spending. Obama himself is projected to spend over $1 trillion more than he projected a year ago. The Federal Government will have a National Debt of $16.2 trillion by the year 2013. Although Obamacare may save 0.93% of Obama’s own, out of control, deficit spending (a percentage which is declining every second) over the next decade, it fails in that:

  1. It will not stop the deficit spending.
  2. It will not pay down the National Debt.
  3. It will not provide health coverage for all Americans.
  4. It will not reduce the cost of health insurance.

And then there’s the question of what’s going to happen after the first decade. Not even the CBO can legally answer that question. In my opinion, Obamacare is nothing but a token bill designed to stroke Obama’s ego. It will have virtually no effect from a fiscal standpoint, and could trigger many negative side effects. So I ask, what’s the point?

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Update 3/18/10

The top section of the following table is from the CBO’s March 2010 Baseline and CBO’s Estimate of the President’s Budget here. For the fiscal years 2011 through 2020, the President’s budget came out $3.777 trillion more in the red than CBO’s baseline, resulting in total deficit spending by Obama of $9.761 trillion between 2011 and 2020, or $11.2 trillion from 2010 through 2020.

I overlaid the lower section with the CBO’s stated effect of Obamacare on the deficit, from Table 1 (page 6) of their scoring report, which was released on 03/18/10 here.

Click to Enlarge

So it’s even worse than I stated yesterday. Obama will overshoot the baseline budget by $3.777 trillion, and will add $11.2 trillion to the National Debt between 2010 and 2020. And he thinks that by passing Obamacare and destroying the US Health Care Industry in the process, that it is worth it, in order to save $119 billion (or $138 or whatever) over the first 10 years. If you ask me $119 billion (or $138 or whatever) in savings looks pretty pathetic when Obama and Congress are already on course to increase the national debt by $11.2 trillion in reckless spending.

This makes Democrats giddy? The whole borrow and spend fest makes me mad as hell. And as far as the second decade goes, I don’t see any compelling evidence in the CBO report that would guarantee that the deficit would continue to fall. And even if the deficit would fall by $1 trillion in the second decade, this would only partially offset an additional $10 trillion (or more) of reckless deficit spending if Washington continues on it’s present disastrous path.

And by the way, the report doesn’t say that the deficit will fall by $1 trillion in the second decade. It does, however, mention that the savings generated by the education provisions would outweigh the costs related to the health care provisions. In otherwords, by fundamentally ‘destroying’ the education system, they can justify destroying the health care system, but this only works for ‘giddy’, power grabbing, debt laden, incumbent Democrats.

Sources:

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/112xx/doc11231/budgetprojections.xls

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/113xx/doc11355/hr4872.pdf

Cost Analysis Health Care Bill

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/hist01z2.xls

Obama’s Big Lie at Today’s Rally: "Your Employer Would See Premiums Fall By As Much As 3000 Percent"

Obamacare Rally in Strongsville, Ohio

March 15, 2010

“How many people are getting insurance through their jobs right now, raise your hands, a lot of those folk, your employer, it’s estimated would see premiums fall by as much as 3000 percent so they could give you a raise.”

More lies and desperation from Obama. He fools these poor suckers in Strongsville, Ohio into believing that under his health care plan, employer’s health insurance premiums will fall by as much as 3,000%. And they just soaked it up, until one of them fainted. Poor suckers.

I guess by the time Obama get’s done, we’ll all be getting paid to have health insurance. What a moron.

Just vote no today and we’ll settle it in November.

Kudos to: Hot Air Pundit, and Town Hall

Obama’s Tax Fallacy II: Updated

By: Larry Walker, Jr.

[Updated]

Tax Fallacy II, 95% B.S.

According to the Tax Policy Center, there were 151 million tax units in 2009 (excluding dependents of other tax units). Out of those 151 million tax units, 65.6 million, or 43.4% had zero or negative tax liabilities here. This confirms that only 56.6% of those who file income tax returns actually pay income taxes. But that’s not the end of the story.

According to the IRS Statistics of Income Report here, at the end of 2008, there were 9.2 million tax units who filed tax returns with additional taxes due. At the end of 2008, although $28.4 billion had been collected, the balance still owed by these 9.2 million tax units was $94.4 billion.

Also according to the same IRS Statistics of Income Report here, at the end of 2008, there were 3.4 million tax units who had open delinquency investigation cases. The net amount of taxes owed by these taxpayers was $24.9 billion. Although $3.8 billion was collected when such returns were filed, the difference of $21.1 billion was still outstanding.

So far we have one report which reveals that there are a total of 151 million tax units within the United States. We also have proof that only 85.4 million (56.6%) of these pay income taxes, while 65.6 million (43.4%) pay none. Next we have statistics from the IRS which tell us that out of the 85.4 million who pay income taxes, 12.6 million (9.2 + 3.4) actually haven’t paid, and in fact, they still owe $115.5 billion ($94.4 + $21.1). Are you with me so far?

So out of the 85.4 million who pay income taxes, 12.6 million actually haven’t paid what they owe. This means that only 72.8 million out of a total of 151 million tax units actually file their tax returns on time, and pay their share of income taxes. Thus, in real terms, only 72.8 million out of 151 million tax units, or 48.2% pay income taxes, while 51.8% do not.

This makes moot the following quote: “I gave 95% of working families a tax cut.”

Although I admit the rhetoric sounds good, when one considers the national debt which is heading towards $19 trillion, one has to wonder whether this is even such a good idea. When one considers an unemployment rate of 10% to 19%, depending on who you believe, one has to wonder what that segment of society thinks about the “95% Fallacy”. Shall we subtract the unemployed from those who pay taxes and add them to those who don’t, or just leave well enough alone?

However you want to look at it, there is no way on earth that 95% of working families received a tax cut. In reality, roughly 51.8% don’t pay any taxes to cut. And between 10% to 19% received a cut alright, but it wasn’t a tax cut. What it works out to, in reality, is more akin to an additional tax burden on the ever shrinking 48.2% who actually do pay income taxes. I’m still waiting for the proof behind those grandiose words. Prove it!

Update:

And now we have news that 100,000 federal civilian employees owe just about $1 billion in unpaid federal income taxes. When you tack on retirees and military personnel, the number jumps to 276,000 who owe more than $3 billion. Oh for crying out loud, fire them all starting at the top. Where was it that the buck stops again?

See: Fire Fed Workers Who Don’t Pay Taxes

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References:

IRS Statistics of Income

Tax Policy Center

TaxFoundation.org