Fair Shot, Fair Share and a Glass of Algae

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *

“Lake Erie is facing its worst toxic algae bloom since the 60’s and somehow it is going unnoticed…” ~ JoeOH111 *

According to Mr. Obama, you don’t have a fair shot right now, and it’s all because millionaires aren’t paying enough income tax. If millionaires would just give the federal government its fair share, then you, I, and everyone else would have a fair shot…, and a glass of algae.

What, pray tell, is a fair shot?

The best definition I can surmise is “a lawful chance at odds.” But don’t we all have this already? For example, the odds of winning the recent \$640 million Mega Millions jackpot were 1 in 176 million. In order to guarantee a win, one would have had to spend \$176 million buying up every combination. So if some nefarious millionaire had purchased all 176 million combinations, would he or she have had an unfair advantage?

Well, perhaps, but what millionaire would be dumb enough to blow \$176 million on lottery tickets? What are the odds of that ever happening? The odds of one person buying all 176 million winning combinations, across multiple States, would probably be 1 in (infinity). In other words, a guaranteed win is impossible, at least when it comes to the Mega Millions lottery. But a fair shot is open to anyone who plays the game. “You gotta be in it to win it.”

According to CBS News, one person purchased \$2,600 worth of lotto tickets, and another threw down \$55, while the more frugal played their usual dollar or two. Did the one who blew \$2,600 have an unfair advantage over \$55 and \$1 players? I will concede that the \$2,600 player had an advantage, but I would hesitate to call it unfair. The poor sap simply had more to lose, yet not a dime more to gain. Not one dime. Now let’s flip over to the Mega Trillions Federal Debt Lotto.

Mega Trillions Federal Debt Lotto

If a taxpayer earns \$176 million in taxable income and pays \$29.9 million in federal taxes (a rate of 17%), while another earns \$50,000 and pays \$8,500 in taxes (also a rate of 17%), and yet another earns \$25,000 and pays \$0, does either have an unfair advantage? Since both the millionaire and the \$50,000 wage earner pay the exact same tax rate (17%), the non-taxpayer has an advantage. But is it an unfair advantage? I would say so, especially since in the recent past we all pitched in at every level of income. Yet the one paying \$29.9 million in taxes has a lot more to lose than both the \$8,500 payer, and the non-taxpayer.

But who wins in this crapshoot? With the federal government borrowing and spending hundreds of billions of dollars, in advance, and squandering it to produce test-tube sewage-fed algae biomass for fuel, while Lake Erie and other U.S. lakes are full of “free” blue-green scum, the answer is no one. You’d have to be an idiot to waste hundreds of billions of dollars manufacturing something that’s sitting right in front of your face, wouldn’t you? Hindsight is 20/20, foresight is priceless.

When it comes to the national debt, those who don’t pay federal income taxes make out like bandits, they have nothing to lose. And those who already pay more than their “fair share” (i.e. taxed enough already) have nothing to gain. It’s not the 2% of top earners that worry me, they generally pay their bills on time, but rather the federal government which has already borrowed more than 100% of our entire economy, an amount estimated to reach \$16.3 Trillion by September 30th of this year.

Only a depraved leader would have his nose in other peoples finances while ignoring his own debt laden, broken, overspent, and soon to be bankrupt enterprise. The federal government is not the solution to our problems; it’s the \$16.3 Trillion in the hole, deadbeat, money squandering, largest debtor-nation in the Universe, leach, which is forever in the way and constantly on our collective back.

The moral of this story: Never confuse motion with action.

In other words, quit giving speeches and fix the problem. No one is going to vote for a tax increase in the middle of an election cycle, no matter how many speeches are enounced and dribbled. Especially not the one proffered, which in the end will barely cover one day’s worth of current deficit spending. No not a one! We don’t have a revenue problem; no, no, no, what we have is a deadbeat, money squandering, and largest debtor-nation in the Universe, ass-backwards, leach of a federal government problem. Get a clue!

Rather than paying more taxes, or spending multi-millions on lottery tickets to become multi-millionaires all over again, our well-to-do brethren would do better by investing in their own casinos, creating jobs and fair shot opportunities for others. And that leads us back to square one all over again: cut taxes, cut spending, and get out of our way and off our backs.

Photo Credit: Lake Erie, Stirred Up | Via: NASA Earth Observatory (March 21, 2012)

The Real Employment Situation – January 2009 through March 2012

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *

“Our economy’s now created more than 4 million private sector jobs over the past 2 years. And more than 600,000 in the past 3 months alone,” Mr. Obama boasted to a forum at the White House on women and the economy, on Friday (CBS News).

And in related news, on the previous evening, Egan-Jones Ratings Co. cut the U.S.A.’s credit rating one step to AA, the second downgrade in nine months and two levels below its highest grade, with a negative outlook citing the nation’s increasing debt burden (Bloomberg).

Most of us are well aware of the nation’s impending debt implosion, but the real employment situation has been distorted beyond reason. I understand how badly Mr. Obama is fighting against returning to the obscure existence he led prior to 2008, but if he was at all capable, he would at least tell us the truth about where we stand. I’m frankly weary from all the sugarcoating and distortion of facts. So what’s the real employment situation?

The Truth Shall Set You Free!

In order to know the truth, we must examine not so much monthly trends in employment, but rather changes which have occurred from the end of January 2009 through March 2012. When we examine the entire record, we find that our economy hasn’t created any jobs at all over the past 3 ¼ years, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Instead the unemployment rate has risen from 7.8% to 8.2%, the number of nonfarm jobs has declined by 740,000, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 624,000, and total employment has declined by 153,000. Meanwhile, the working age population has grown by 7,865,000, while the civilian labor force has only managed an increase of 471,000, causing the number of persons no longer counted in the labor force to balloon by 7,395,000.

The truth is that our economy hasn’t created any new jobs since Obama’s policies took effect. The total number of jobs peaked at an all time high of 146,595,000 in November of 2007, and through March of 2012 the number stands at 142,034,000, more than 4.5 million off the mark. If we had more jobs than existed in November of 2007, then Obama would have something to brag about, although not much. But since the truth is somewhat inconvenient, we are supposed to ignore the fact that we are more than 4 million jobs in the hole, and submit to repeated media brainwashing and succumb to the belief that we have somehow moved ahead by over 4 million. Phooey! Here are the facts.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate rose from 7.8 percent in January of 2009 to 8.2 percent as of March 2012, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Employment Situation 4/6/2012). (See table A-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

Nonfarm Employment

Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 740,000 through March of 2012, from 133,561,000 in January of 2009 to 132,821,000. (See table B-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

Unemployed Persons

The number of unemployed persons increased by 624,000 through March of 2012, from 12,049,000 in January of 2009 to 12,673,000. (See table A-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

Total Employment

The number of persons employed declined by 153,000 through March of 2012, from 142,187,000 in January of 2009 to 142,034,000. (See table A-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

Civilian Noninstitutional Population

The Civilian Noninstitutional Population (working age population) increased by 7,865,000 through March of 2012, from 234,739,000 in January of 2009 to 242,604,000. (See table A-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

Civilian Labor Force

The labor force increased by 471,000 through March of 2012, from 154,236,000 in January of 2009 to 154,707,000. The labor force hasn’t grown at all since October of 2008. (See table A-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

Not in Labor Force

The number of persons not in the labor force increased by 7,395,000 through March of 2012, from 80,502,000 in January of 2009 to 87,897,000. (See table A-1 / Seasonally Adjusted)

To make the claim of having created more jobs than Mr. Bush, which we all know was Mr. Obama’s insinuation; he must first match Mr. Bush’s all-time-high of 146,595,000. If the number of persons who involuntarily dropped out of the labor force (7.3 million), since Mr. Obama’s policies took effect, had instead been jobs created, Mr. Obama might go down in history as the all-time greatest. However, since we presently have 4.5 million fewer jobs than existed at Mr. Bush’s peak, and since, under the direction of Mr. Obama, 7.3 million new working age persons have been pushed straight into joblessness and generational dependency, Mr. Obama’s policies should perhaps be branded as the most ineffective in U.S. history.

Since employment is a lagging economic indicator, and because economists are calling for recession in 2012, and since the statistics above represent the sum total of Obama’s economic accomplishments, we’re in for serious troubles ahead. To reiterate, Mr. Obama’s policies of Inordinate Stimulus, Undue Debt and Global Warming Foolishness caused the Looming Recession.

Photo Credit: A swarm of Western Toad tadpoles eating algae. Photo: Kristiina Ovaska

Reference: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation Summary

Data: Worksheets

The Malaise of 2012 | Part IV

* Inordinate Stimulus, Undue Debt and Global Warming Foolishness Caused the Recession

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *

“With few exceptions no educated person in the history of Western Civilization from the 3rd Century B.C. onward believed that the earth was flat… No one before the 1830’s believed that medieval people thought that the earth was flat.” ~ Jeffrey Burton Russell (The Myth of the Flat Earth)

Global Warming Foolishness

In an article entitled, “Algae for Waste Water Treatment and BioFuel Production: A Double Winner,” Dr. John Kyndt and Dr. Aecio D’Silva discuss the process known as phycoremediation, which is short for treating waste water with micro algae, for the purpose of producing low cost algae biofuels and other biomass products.

Biofuel is a type of fuel whose energy is derived from biological carbon fixation. The advantage of algae is that it will supposedly consume more CO2 than is released in the process. Unfortunately, and unbeknownst to many, this has not been the case with previous generations of biomass. So how did scientists arrive at the recent pronouncement that algae-biomass is the answer to our future fueling needs?

In 2008, two groups of US researchers independently concluded that most biofuels commonly thought of as solutions for reducing greenhouse gases, turned out instead to increase greenhouse gas emissions. Clearing grassland or forests to plant them released more carbon dioxide than could be saved in the process. The analyses proved that large amounts of trapped carbon are released into the atmosphere when vegetation burns or decays as land is cleared. This up-front ‘carbon debt’ could take centuries to break even with emissions gradually avoided by substituting biofuels in place of fossil fuels. Many studies subsequently arrived at the same conclusion.

For example, sugarcane ethanol grown on the converted Brazilian savannah would need to replace petrol emissions for 17 years just to repay the carbon released when the savannah was converted. Other examples, such as soybean biodiesel from cleared Amazonian rainforest, took centuries to break even. The studies concluded that, only biofuels made from waste products, or grown on abandoned lands would do less harm than good. Thus the algae boom was born. The same line of reasoning eventually lead to the latest craze: treating waste water with algae for biofuel production. A double winner loser!

Ironically, fossil fuels have their origin in ancient carbon fixation, a similar process to that realized through detoxifying sewer water with algae. However, green scientists don’t recognize fossil fuel as a biofuel because it contains carbon that has been out of the carbon cycle for a very long time (which might actually be a good thing). Thus, we have green fuel, manufactured through synthetic carbon fixation, versus black gold, created through naturally aged carbon fixation.

Here’s how the algae fad works. Instead of waiting on Mother Nature to naturally form fossil fuels, mankind is now capable of producing the same effect in a fraction of the time. We have arrived. The idea is that as you flush your toilet, instead of the waste flowing to costly, energy consuming, waste water treatment facilities; it will instead be treated with algae before returning to your tap. In turn, the algae will be converted into biodiesel, green diesel, bio-jet and chemicals. The residual biomass, which is high in proteins and carbohydrates, will be used in aquaculture, animal feed, and food ingredients. Did I say food ingredients? Yes. And that makes algae a triple loser!

In fact, one particular algae biofuel manufacturer, Solazyme, boasts of its ability to create renewable oil – for fuel, and for food. Among its primary inputs are waste streams. When I recently learned that one of my favorite frozen food companies, which I won’t name here, was using the residual biomass from Solazyme in its food-line, I immediately discontinued its use. The thought of diesel fuel, and food coming from the same sewage fed algae-brew was more than I could take, as I alluded to in, Ends of the Green Agenda – Costs of Algae Biofuel.

The U.S. Navy has announced the objective of operating at least 50% of its fleet on clean, renewable fuel by 2020. According to Marine Corps Times, in 2009 the Navy paid \$424.00 per gallon for 20,055 gallons of biodiesel made from algae, which set a world record at the time for the cost of fuel. Solazyme was the recipient of this lucrative contract. In the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression, the U.S. Navy presumed that paying \$424.00 per gallon for algae biodiesel (while petroleum based diesel was selling for an average of \$2.50 per gallon) was somehow not a foolish waste of taxpayer’s money.

How has the company fared since the stimulus well ran dry? Solazyme (symbol: SZYM) opened on the NASDAQ Exchange at \$20.71 in May of 2011, peaked at \$27.03 in July of 2011, then tanked to \$8.29 by October of 2011. Although it recently closed at \$15.05 on March 21, 2012, and its total revenue for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 was \$39.0 million compared with \$38.0 million in the prior year, its fiscal year 2011 GAAP net loss attributable to its common stockholders was \$(54.0) million, compared with \$(16.4) million in the prior year.

So since Solazyme had \$39 million in revenue but wound up losing \$54 million in 2011, it appears to be a huge boondoggle. It’s quite a feat for a company to lose more than 100% of its total revenues. Were it not for the government’s inordinate stimulus coupled with undue debt, this foolish endeavor, along with a myriad of others, wouldn’t exist.

Yes, it’s true, global warming foolishness is a major cause of the looming recession. Instead of focusing on root causes of the previous recession, the Obama Administration has gone awhoring after science fiction myths and bowed itself to strange gods. And because of this we must all pay a price.

Economist Raymond Richman of Ideal Taxes sums it up:

The growth of state-subsidized bio-fuels, windmills and solar panels, hybrid vehicles, electric cars, and lithium battery manufacturers has highly negative effects on employment and regressive effects on the distribution of income.

We estimate that about \$100 billion in grants and tax credits have been extended by the federal and state governments to the proprietors of those establishments, making many of them rich and eager to take advantage of the free capital and guaranteed loans.

Tax rebates and tax credits do not appear in our federal budget.

American economists are at a loss to explain the continuing high level of unemployment in the face of the \$800 billion Recovery Act expenditures, the \$1.5 and \$1.8 trillion budget deficits in 2010 and 2011, and “green” energy subsidies, federal and state.

Moreover, none of the “global warming” could compete with fossil fuels without huge government subsidies. The states and federal government provided about 60 percent of the capital of the green enterprises and got nothing in return. The government made sure that wind and solar plants got a high enough price for the electricity they produced by requiring electric utilities to buy their electricity output regardless of price. The subsidies are so costly that Spain had to end the wind and solar subsidies to avoid bankruptcy and we shall have to as well.

Recently, while attempting to defend his global warming panic policies, Barack Obama made the following humorous remark, “If some of these folks were around when Columbus set sail, they probably must have been founding members of the flat earth society. They would not believe that the world was round.” Apparently everyone but Obama knows that, with few exceptions, no educated person in the history of Western Civilization from the 3rd Century B.C. onward believed that the earth was flat.

Am I supposed to trust a man who is roaming around the countryside proclaiming that the world will turn into a giant incinerator within a couple of years, unless we start making our food and fuel out of our own feces?

I simply refuse to believe that the World will turn into a ball of fire through our continued, prudent use of natural, God-given, carbon based fossil fuels. However, I do believe that the U.S.A. is headed for a cliff. If this nation keeps on borrowing and spending like it is today, we might be forced into bankruptcy within a couple of years, a concept which is apparently beyond Mr. Obama’s grasp.

The U.S. is sitting on a 200-year supply of oil. If the idea is to break free from our dependence on foreign oil, I’m game, and we can start doing that right now, with our God-given natural resources. But if the idea is some foolish Doomsday notion, based on panic and fear, then Obama should be removed from the White House, and returned to the nearest urban street corner, cardboard sign and all. Global warming foolishness is the third and final element contributing to the Malaise of 2012.

Continued from: The Malaise of 2012 | Part I | Part II | Part III

——————————————————————————————————

Other references:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biofuel#cite_note-Science2-51

Unilever’s new Durban plant a model of sustainable savoury dry food production – Well alrighty then!

11 Great Things to Do With Sewage

Algae Meal Performs as Dairy Cattle Feed

The Malaise of 2012 | Part III

* Inordinate Stimulus, Undue Debt and Global Warming Foolishness Caused the Recession

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *

It is impossible to calculate the effect of deficit-financed government spending on demand without specifying how people expect the deficit to be paid off in the future. ~ The Theory of Rational Expectations

Undue Debt

Obama’s three-point plan for deficit reduction can be summed up in three words, “Spend Baby Spend.” In fact, Obama will have borrowed more than \$6.3 trillion during his four-year term, which is more than the first 42 and 1/4 presidents combined. And what do we have to show for it? Nothing! The only thing that his profligate spending has accomplished is to effectively stifle any chance of recovery from the December 2007 recession.

The total debt outstanding, from the inception of the United States through George W. Bush’s second year in office was \$6.2 trillion. Since Obama has borrowed \$6.3 trillion in four years, that’s more than the total debt incurred in the first 226 years of American history. Now that this is clear, there is really only one question:

Have we recovered yet?

To answer this, all one has to do is look at employment. The number of jobs reached an all-time high of 138,023,000 in January of 2008, but today, we are still 5.3 million jobs short of this mark.

As of the February 2012 Employment Situation Report, employers logged in a total of 132,697,000 jobs. Well great, but that’s only 170,000 more jobs than there were in February of 2001. In fact over the same 11-year period, the civilian non-institutional population grew by 29,692,000 persons. So since the working age population has grown by over 29 million, while the number of jobs has grown by a mere 170,000, the answer to that question is negative. The handwriting is on the wall.

So what was Obama’s three-point deficit plan, again? Step one was to borrow, step two to spend, and step three to repeat step one. As you may recall, “We have to spend more to keep from going broke.” It’s Endless Stimulus! Spend baby spend! As far as when principal repayments will begin, well, even with a second term, that would be never, since Obama failed to produce a budget during his first term.

As we discussed in War on Wealth III | National Debt Review, since the gross public debt as a percentage of GDP has skyrocketed from 69.9% in 2008, to 104.8% in 2012, and is projected to reach 107.8% by 2014, our ability to repeat the mistakes of the Obama administration is over. This means there won’t be a second term. The Era of Obamanomics is over.

Obama prematurely increased spending to DEFCON 1 levels, yet World War III isn’t here yet. And in spite of this undue debt, we are now heading directly into another recession, this year, in 2012. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) reiterated its recession call on March 15, 2012, in a detailed report entitled, Why Our Recession Call Stands.

Honey baby, when the federal government borrows and spends \$6.3 trillion dollars, as it has done between fiscal years 2009 and 2012, that’s 6.3 trillion fewer dollars the private sector has had access to. Having trouble qualifying for a loan? Did your local bank go belly up while you waited for approval? Small wonder; for even lenders are rational beings.

Shall we lend more money to homeowner’s who are already upside down on their mortgages, to small businesses owners who lack guarantees, or shall we instead lend to the federal government which has a guaranteed ability to repay? A printing press, that is. Undue Debt is the biggest factor contributing to the Malaise of 2012.

“When people do not accept divine guidance, they run wild. But whoever obeys the law is joyful.” ~ Proverbs 29:18

To be continued …

Continued from: The Malaise of 2012 | Part I and Part II

The Malaise of 2012 | Part II

* Inordinate Stimulus, Undue Debt and Global Warming Foolishness Caused the Recession

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *

“… an unprecedented degree of federal government spending and intervention vis-à-vis the \$787 billion dollar economic stimulus package, the \$81 billion dollar bailouts of GM and Chrysler, and the enactment of health care and financial regulatory and reform bills have done nothing to stimulate our anemic recovery and have fundamentally failed at creating private sector jobs, or generating economic growth necessary for a sustainable, healthy recovery.” ~ Douglas Schoen via: The Daily Beast

Inordinate Stimulus

According to Economist Raymond Richman of Ideal Taxes Association, “The recession of 1937-38 indicated that there was no Keynesian multiplier.” That is to say, as soon as the stimulus of the preceding four years was reduced, the economy tanked. Nevertheless, Keynesians believe that the Roosevelt administration reduced stimulus spending too soon. The same argument has been made by Nobel Prize winner Prof. Paul Krugman and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Prof. Christina Romer, and many others, after the failure of the \$787 billion Recovery Act of 2009.

If four years of government stimulus isn’t enough, how long should it take, until the nation declares bankruptcy? The truth is it really doesn’t matter how long a stimulus program lasts, whether it endures for a day, a week, a month or a century; as soon as the program ends, so does all of the propped up economic growth. Is there any proof to the contrary? No, not unless hot air can be likened to proof. Let’s us ponder the stimulus theory.

For example, if the government were to give each citizen a \$40 per month advance out of their future Social Security retirement entitlement, such stimulus may provide a small boost to personal consumption, or private savings. Why a family of four might even be able to purchase an extra half-tank of gasoline, at today’s prices. But will the ability to buy an extra half-tank of gas lead to a permanent \$40 per month pay raise?

Not unless the extra mileage is used to obtain either a second, or higher paying job. Short of that, once the stimulus ends, so will the temporary boost to disposable monthly income. The point is that unless a stimulus program results in a permanent increase to future income, when the program ends, the recipient is demoted back to square one, or in the current economy, square zero.

With inflation soaring as it is today, an extra \$40 per month will, if one is lucky, afford the same amount of gasoline that could have been purchased three years ago, at half the cost. And what’s the trade off? Well, one can either look forward to a smaller retirement annuity in the future or a tax hike in the near-term in order to make up the difference.

Green wasn’t as green as we thought!

To further drive home the point, if the government were to identify certain promising green energy companies, and to grant them billions of dollars in loan guarantees; would this represent the kind of stimulus capable of permanent growth? Well, that would depend on whether such companies produced marketable products. We know the U.S. Department of Energy has already engaged in precisely such activity. And what were the results?

As soon as the funds were disbursed, the companies purchased buildings, equipment, hired workers, and began to manufacture. But in most cases, the products in question have turned out to be overpriced and unmarketable. Since there was no unsubsidized present day demand for imaginary 22nd Century products, once the stimulus well ran dry, most of these grand endeavors collapsed. The remainder will soon follow suit.

Dr. Valerie Ramey, Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego recently published a Working Paper Series in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) entitled, “Government Spending and Private Activity,” in which she drew the following conclusions:

• Private spending falls significantly in response to an increase in government spending.

• Increases in government spending lower unemployment, but in most cases virtually all of the effect is through an increase in government employment, not private employment.

• And that on balance, government spending does not appear to stimulate private activity.

Although in early 2010 the economy received a jolt, the bump in the road we all felt was nothing but a speed bump on the way to another recession. The sheer size of the injection propelled us upward for a fleeting moment, but in the aftermath, GDP declined from a year-over-year growth rate of 3.0% in 2010, to a year-over-year growth rate of just 1.7% in 2011. Alas, once the stimulus subsided, economic growth was cut nearly in half. Inordinate stimulus is a major contributor to the Malaise of 2012.

No matter how you slice it, deficit-financed government stimulus doesn’t provide the requisite spark essential to permanent economic growth, it never has, and it never will. There is no Keynesian multiplier. So what else is new?

To be continued …

Continued from Part I

Related:

Tax Simplification, Part II – Saving \$1,756 Billion, Overnight

Why Our Recession Call Stands – Economic Cycle Research Institute (3/15/12)

The Malaise of 2012 | Part I

* Inordinate Stimulus, Undue Debt and Global Warming Foolishness Caused the Recession

* By: Larry Walker, Jr. *

Despite Obama’s optimism, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), the same organization which successfully predicted the last recession, and which over the last 15 years has gotten all of its recession calls right while issuing no false alarms, has recently opined that a 2012 recession is now inevitable.

According to ECRI, the four basic metrics that define an economy are gross domestic product (GDP), personal income, broad sales and employment. GDP peaked in the 2nd quarter of 2010, and has since been cut in half. Personal income and broad sales have closely tracked GDP. And although there has been a firming in jobs growth, when the four are taken together, the data confirm that the economy is slowing. We are heading into recession.

Employment is a lagging indicator.

Many mistakenly believe that if jobs growth gets a little better, then consumption, production and income will all improve; but in the real world jobs follow consumption, production and income. In other words, as consumption, production and income improve higher levels of employment follow. But since consumption, production and income are all on the decline, the jobs market will soon follow.

Case in point: During the recession of 2001, which lasted from March until November of 2001, employment peaked at an all-time high of 132,529,000 jobs in February, a month ahead of the recession. Six years later, during the recession of 2007, which lasted from December of 2007 through June of 2009, the number of jobs hit a new all-time high of 138,023,000 in January of 2008, the month following the start of the recession.

At the other ends of the spectrum, during the former recession (March 2001 – November 2001), the number of jobs didn’t reach a bottom of 129,840,000, until June of 2003, some 19 month’s after the recession ended. While during the latter malaise (December 2007 – June 2009), the jobs market hit a bottom of 129,244,000, but not until February of 2010, a full 8 month’s after the recession ended.

So which came first, the chicken or the egg? In other words, does a slow down in hiring lead to a slow down in hiring? Or does the tanking of GDP, personal income and broad sales lead to recession, and recession to the loss of jobs? I think we know the answer.

What’s sad is that the U.S. never fully recovered from the recession of December 2007, yet here we go again. Just look at employment. As of the February 2012 Employment Situation Report, employers logged in a total of 132,697,000 jobs, which is just 170,000 more than we had in February of 2001. Yet over the same period of time, the civilian non-institutional population has grown by some 29,692,000 persons. So as the working age population has grown by over 29 million, the number of jobs has grown by a mere 170,000. The handwriting is on the wall.

The point is that any improvement we are seeing in today’s employment situation isn’t necessarily cause for celebration, at least not for Mr. Obama, as it is likely the end of his (temporary) stimulus based, debt laced, global warming panic induced, anemic recovery. If you still don’t get it, go back to the top and re-read paragraphs 1 through 3, and it might help if you follow the links.

To be continued…